Economic Outlook for the Forms Industry

In spite of dramatic restructuring by many large forms producers, FORMTRAC 2002 shows that overall industry product sales will remain stable in the $13.8 to 14.6 billion range through 2005, excluding possible large non-forms acquisitions. Distributor’s share of total product sales at retail value will continue to hover in the 56% - 57% range. Beneath this overall stability, FORMTRAC 2002 shows that the industry is experiencing major shifts in product mix.

Can a "Forms Industry" exist without forms? The core conventional forms product group that defines the forms industry will drop from 62.5% of total product sales in 1997 to 43.4% in 2006. The ten-year view of actual and projected industry sales by product category in FORMTRAC 2002 raises serious questions about the real identity of the industry. Some of the critical issues facing the industry today are:

INDUSTRY RESTRUCTURING
Definition of what constitutes the forms industry and analysis of industry shipments has become very difficult due to major structural changes over the last ten years. Wallace Computer Services now produces more commercial printing than forms and is also a large supplier of labels. Standard Register has formed an alliance with Consolidated Graphics and will become a distributor of commercial printing. Moore is undergoing extensive corporate restructuring and product mix shifts, including acquisition of new service and commercial printing businesses. Reynolds & Reynolds has executed the most radical strategy by selling most of the forms plants to a new business called Relizon. Reynolds & Reynolds is now partly a service bureau and partly a forms distributor with selective forms production capabilities. Relizon is partly a direct-selling forms manufacturer and partly a trade supplier with Reynolds & Reynolds as their main distributor account.

Industry restructuring has also affected the Independent Segment, where some manufacturers use multiple channels of distribution and more distributors have acquired or started manufacturing operations. The most significant impact has been the increase in suppliers from outside the forms industry who now use forms suppliers as a distribution channel. The "outsiders" provide many of the products that are now driving growth in distributorships and are replacing sales declines in mature conventional forms. FORMTRAC 2002 shows that products other than conventional forms were 46.6% of total distributor sales last year, and will be over 50% in 2003.

How Big is the Forms Industry?
The total market for forms, related products and services is larger than the "Forms Industry" because forms are also produced in many plants that traditionally have not been considered part of the "Forms Industry." Formtrac 2002 provides an estimate of the total market for forms, which is part of the even larger Printed Business Communications Industry. Traditional Forms Industry participants have substantial new business opportunities under the broad forms market definition used in Formtrac 2002.

FORMTRAC is the only industry study that shows shipments by direct-selling and trade manufacturers on a comparable basis--retail value of products and services. This approach recognizes the value added by distributors, which has traditionally been omitted from manufacturer shipment statistics compiled by the US Department of Commerce and other consulting firms. Since the independent segment represents over 50% of the industry, the value added by distributors is a large component of total industry sales to end-users.

All Formtrac 2002 shipment estimates are presented in retail (end user) value of products and services and include the following segments of the printed business communications industry:

• "Traditional" Forms Industry
  
  • Retail value of shipments by forms trade manufacturers
  • Retail value of production by plants owned or controlled by forms distributors
  • Services provided by forms distributors
  • Internal production by direct-selling forms manufacturers
  • Services provided by direct selling forms manufacturers
  • Retail value of products other than forms distributed by traditional forms industry participants
    
    
• Other printed business communications industry segments that produce forms and forms-related products and services.
  
  • Forms produced by general commercial printers, service bureau operations and document factories.
  • Forms produced by quick printers and commercial copy shops
  • Market (retail) value of forms and related products manufactured by in-plant printshops.

Annual changes by market segment and product category in both the "traditional" Forms Industry and the broader forms and printed business document market follow a relatively consistent pattern, tied to gradual shifts in specific technologies and to general economical conditions and trends. In some periods or product categories, unusual economic conditions, mergers, acquisitions, divestitures or other strong external influences may disrupt the pattern. Formtrac 2002 methodology includes determining the typical product and market segment growth or decline pattern combined with analysis of factors that cause deviations from the typical patterns. For the "traditional" Forms Industry, analysis of major external influences is combined with information on individual company results or initiatives that cause abrupt increases or declines in product shipments. The following is a summary of factors considered in market and product category shipment estimates and forecasts:

• Market conditions that cause gradual increases or declines in specific product category annual sales.
  • General economic conditions in the US and trends in industries that are major users of forms and other printed products.
  • General advances in technologies such as electronic forms, electronic commerce, Electronic Data Interchange, Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment and other technologies that affect demand for conventional forms and other printed products.
  • Gradual changes in forms production, usage, storage and printing technologies.
  • Manufacturers from outside the "traditional" Forms Industry who have started to use forms suppliers as a distribution channel.
  • Forms migration from conventional plants to other types of facilities using digital printing equipment.
  • Forms distributor efforts to diversify their product lines and move into growth segments of the printed business communications industry.

• Market conditions and events that cause sizeable abrupt increases or declines in specific product category year-to-year sales levels.
  • Impact of consolidations, business closures, mergers, acquisitions and plant additions among forms industry participants.
  • Abrupt demand changes due to recession, business activity peaks, disruption of mail service, increase in postal rates, shifts in direct mail programs, sudden technology changes and other unexpected events that affect broad specific product categories or segments of the printing industry.

FORMS INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
FORMTRAC 2002 points to a fragmented industry that is experiencing growing overlap between product categories and threats from new technologies and new suppliers that can shift work from conventional forms presses to alternative production systems. The most serious industry challenge, evident in compiling FORMTRAC 2002 data, is a lack of clear industry leaders and business models. The major directs who formed the industry leadership core in the past are no longer effective in that role due to ownership changes, internal restructuring focus or diminished identification with forms. If the industry cannot develop a new definition of itself and unite under a leadership core of major participants it may evolve into a variety of product specialties and merge into other segments of the larger printing and business communications industries.

FORMTRAC 2002 points to the following broad conclusions about the future of the forms industry:

• The forms industry is gradually dissolving as a clearly identifiable product or market specialty. Technology and market forces are transforming it into a segment of a much larger ($30+ billion) printed business document industry.
• Document processing and printing technology advances are gradually reducing demand for conventional forms, but the industry is not likely to experience a sudden steep drop in conventional forms sales.
• Traditional forms industry participants have been successful in replacing losses of conventional forms volume with a multitude of products that can complement forms and utilize existing sales skills and distribution practices.
• Distributor product mix and growth strategies are diverging from the capabilities of their traditional forms suppliers.
• The greatest current strength of the forms industry is its role as a large distribution network for products and services needed to operate and promote businesses and other types of organizations. Manufacturing, with huge excess capacity, has shifted from a dominant to a supporting role in the industry.

If you would like to purchase a copy of FORMTRAC 2002, click on this link http://www.dmia.org/about/formtrac02.html, or call DMIA’s product sales at 800-336-4641.

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If you have any questions, please contact DMIA’s freight transportation consultant, Ray Bohman, His direct line is 508-945-2272.

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