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Business Printing Technologies Report
April 2002
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Projections on the Direct -Selling Segment of the Forms Industry
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Projections on the Direct-Selling Segment of the Forms Industry
The direct-selling manufacturer segment (Directs) includes both large national and smaller regional companies. Formtrac 2002 estimates by product category include only internal domestic (US) production by the Directs. Products purchased by the Directs from Forms Industry trade manufacturers for resale are included under Independent Segment shipments. Divisions of Directs dedicated exclusively to trade sales have also been included in the Independent Segment.
Both Reynolds & Reynolds and Relizon have been classified as Directs in Formtrac 2002. While Relizon actually serves as a trade manufacturer for Reynolds & Reynolds, who in turn can be considered as partly a distributorship, the combination of the two companies still fits best in the Directs segment.
The direct-selling manufacturer segment has been affected more than the Independent Segment by declining demand for conventional forms. This is due to the narrow focus on very large accounts by several national Directs and their limited participation in the "middle market" of the Forms Industry served by distributors and some regional Directs. A small number of Directs who focus primarily on short runs and the SOHO market niche have experienced more stable demand for conventional forms and checks. Shipment data from these short run manufacturers have a moderating effect on the overall rate of conventional forms sales decline in the Directs segment.
During the 1990's the Directs serving predominantly large accounts competed more intensely on price. Repeated cycles of guaranteed savings reduced the profitability of many large contracts and forms management programs. At the same time, demand for conventional forms began to decline. Some of the Directs serving large customers have started to abandon volume that has become unprofitable. Sales by the major Directs are also constrained due to reductions in the total number of field sales representatives and new competition. Several distributorships now have the size, resources and market coverage to compete with the Directs in large accounts. The result has been extensive restructuring by some of the major national Directs, including acquisitions, divestitures and plant closures, which have caused sizeable shifts in product category shipments within their industry segment.
Total product shipments in the direct-selling manufacturer segment show only small changes during the Formtrac 2002 forecast period. This is due to four factors:
- Regional Directs and manufacturers specializing in short runs for the SOHO market continue to grow.
- The major national Directs have made sizeable commercial printing, label manufacturing and service business acquisitions to offset declining demand for conventional forms.
- Several Directs have proprietary products that continue to command premium prices or are experiencing increased demand.
- The 2002-2006 forecast for the Directs does not include possible large acquisitions outside the Forms Industry. The forecast includes allowances for small-scale acquisitions, divestitures and plant closings.
Sales by the Directs have been grouped in three main classifications: internally manufactured products, sales of forms-related services and resale of products purchased from manufacturers outside the Forms Industry. The internal manufacturing product group is directly comparable to trade manufacturer shipment value at end user prices. Sales of services declined in 2001 mainly due to large staff cuts by several major Directs. Products purchased from manufacturers outside the Forms Industry include office and computer supplies, toner cartridges, document processing equipment, commercial printing, advertising specialties and envelopes. Summary of estimated and projected sales by the Directs in the three major classifications:
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Shipments at End User
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| YEAR | PRICES – $ MILLIONS | % CHANGE |
| Sales of Service Related to Printing | ||
| Estimated 2001 | 552 | -4.5% |
| Projected 2002 | 560 | +1.4% |
| Projected 2003 | 577 | +3.0% |
| Projected 2004 | 600 | +4.0% |
| Projected 2005 | 625 | +4.2% |
| Projected 2006 | 645 | +3.2% |
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Shipments at End User
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| YEAR | PRICES – $ MILLIONS | % CHANGE |
| Sales of Products & Services Purchased from Suppliers Outside the Forms Industry | ||
| Estimated 2001 | 393 | -1.8% |
| Projected 2002 | 410 | +4.3% |
| Projected 2003 | 433 | +5.6% |
| Projected 2004 | 460 | +6.2% |
| Projected 2005 | 485 | +5.4% |
| Projected 2006 | 510 | +5.2% |
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Shipments at End User
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| YEAR | PRICES – $ MILLIONS | % CHANGE |
| Total Product, Service & Non-Forms Buyout Sales by the Directs | ||
| Estimated 2001 | 6,930 | -3.8% |
| Projected 2002 | 6,947 | +0.2% |
| Projected 2003 | 7,064 | +1.7% |
| Projected 2004 | 7,229 | +2.3% |
| Projected 2005 | 7,335 | +1.5% |
| Projected 2006 | 7,426 | +1.2% |
Based on internally-manufactured product shipments, excluding print related services, the Directs share of Forms Industry shipments has remained in the 43% to 44% range. This ratio can be expected to remain stable through 2006, unless one or more of the Directs make very large acquisitions. After 2001, the Directs can be expected to grow revenue from services at a more rapid rate than total product shipments from their plants. These services include warehousing, distribution, forms management, electronic forms, statement processing, systems integration and consulting. The Directs are also increasing sales of products that are normally not considered part of the Forms Industry, such as office supplies, computer suppliers, equipment and other "non-forms" specialties. Most of the "non-forms" products are purchased from suppliers outside the Forms Industry. When the high-growth services and "non-forms" products are included in total sales by the Directs, their share of Forms Industry shipments is projected to remain in the 47% - 48% range for the forecast period, excluding future major acquisitions.
The Directs appear to be very active in using the Internet to increase the effectiveness of their print management programs and build automated procurement systems that can be extended to a very wide range of printing, office suppliers and other business products. The Directs were ahead of the independent segment during the late 1990's in applying Internet technologies to reduce the costs of processing small orders for relatively standard products. This gave the Directs an advantage where they competed with independent distributors for major accounts or comprehensive print management programs. With availability of new Internet-enabled distributor print management software from iGetSmart.com and other suppliers, the independent segment can now match most of the on-line communications technology capabilities of the Directs to automate order processing. Competition from the growing number of large and technologically sophisticated distributors will prevent the major Directs from increasing their share of the Forms Industry.
Conventional forms were 52.8% of products manufactured by the Directs in 2001. This ratio will decline to approximately 43% by 2006. Conventional forms still represent a large market for the Directs, and in software compatible very short run forms the Directs can be expected to gain market share. Shipments in other categories of conventional forms will decline gradually. The forecast does not show any sudden steep drops in demand.
FORMTRAC 2002 includes detailed numbers for the Direct-selling and Independent segment. See the full report for more detailed information and industry numbers on:
- Custom Continuous Forms And Checks
- Very Short Run Custom Forms
- Unit Sets
- Stock Tab Forms And Stock Papers
- Salesbooks, Pegboard And Register Forms
- Promotional And Direct Mail Printed Products
- Commercial And Quick Printing Products
- Labels, Decals, Tags, Tickets, Tapes, Ribbons
If you would like to purchase a copy of FORMTRAC 2002, click on this link http://www.dmia.org/about/formtrac02.html, or call DMIA’s product sales at 800-336-4641.
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