• Expansion of print e-procurement.
• Increased adoption of PDF workflow.
• E-books and books on-demand.
• Sophisticated variable data and front-end products.
• 600 dpi color copiers/printers.
• Reduction in the cost to digitally print.
• An ever-increasing number of faster color copiers/printers.
• An ever-increasing number of digital offset presses.
• Establishment of digitally based workflow standards for job ticketing, e-procurement of print, variable data, and finishing.
• Front-end systems are evolved and are becoming universal servers capable of driving multiple devices and providing a consistent user interface.

Specific trends in the black and white area:

• Advances in front-end system technology for job submission, job ticketing, workflow management, job archiving, and reprint.
• Expanding use of digital file formats.
• Increased impact of mid-range (40-79 pages per minute) digital copiers and cluster printing.
• Growth in both higher speed systems from suppliers such as IBM, OCE, Xerox, and in slower speed systems designed for establishments with lower requirements for average monthly print volume.
• Lower price offerings.
• Embedded controllers or product bundles.
• Compelling black and white cost metrics.
• 600 dpi.
• Plans to match monthly volume requirements.

Spot color trends include:

• Laser cut stencil duplicators from companies like AB Dick, Ricoh, Riso, Savin, and others.
• A very low cost to print.
• Some products offer 600 dpi resolutions.
• One color options for high speed black and white copiers including the IBM InfoPrint 4000, the Nipson 7000, the OCE PageStream 155DC and 210DSC, the Xerox 4850 and 4890 NPS and the Xerox DocuPrint 92C.
• Faster, quality, color printers at appealing price.

Major enhancements to digital color include:

• Process color digital devices that copy or print with 4-color electrophotographic toner.
• Speeds range from 30 to 40 pages per minute (8 1/2 x 11 cut sheets).
• Digital devices that copy or print with 4-color electrophotographic toner.
• Speeds range from 30 to 40 pages per minute (8 1/2 x 11 cut sheets).
• Most products offering a digital copying mode (from hard copy originals via an integrated digital scanner) and a direct digital mode when used with a connected (or embedded) controller or raster image processor (RIP).
• Many products offering automatic duplex printing as an option and can print up to 11" x 17", some supporting larger formats that allow full bleed 11 x 17" printing on 12 x 18" paper.
• Resolution: 400 – 600 dpi, 8 bits/pixels.
• Monthly print volume 1,000 to 100,000 (8 1/2 x 11" impressions/machine/months).
• Purchase price range from $15,000 to $100,000 plus.

TABLE 1
Selected Color Copiers/Printers (From 3-14 ppm)

*Copy Speed is faster than print speed.


TABLE 2
Selected Color Copiers/Printers (15 plus ppm)

*Not including front end.


Trends in high-speed digital color printers include:

• Devices that print at 24 or more unique 8 1/2 x 11" pages per minute using 4 or more process colors.
• Almost all current products in this class support up to 12 x 18" paper size enabling printing of full bleed 11 x 17" images and offer standard or optional duplex.
• Production process color printers.
• Improved quality.
• Emphasis on variable data applications.
• Some consumable cost reductions.
• Increased subset selection.

TABLE 3
Selected High Speed Digital Color Printers

NOTE: Except for the sheet-fed Xeikon CSP 320 D, the Agfa, IBM, Xeikon, and Xerox devices are all based on the same web fed print technology. It offers the same speed whether printing in duplex or simplex mode. Most sheet-fed devices are half as fast when printing duplex.

Finally, trends in direct-to-press devices include:

• Hybrid systems that combine on-press platemaking capability with a printing press.
• Plates are imaged on press, in register.
• Allows faster turnaround times, less waste and reduced labor.
• Currently used primary for 4 to 6-color printing.
• Suitable for running multiple copies of the same image at high speed Heidelberg currently dominates this market.
• Very few sources for plate and imaging technologies.
• Alliances for press, plate and imaging.
• Format 2-up versus 4.
• Common impression cylinder versus multi-station design.
• Buyer dilemma: computer to plate or direct to press?

TABLE 4
Selected Direct-to-Press Products

*Replaced by Quickmaster DI.

NOTE: Many additional products were announced last year at DRUPA 2000. Future vendors will include Akiyama, Didde Web, Komori, MAN Roland, Ryobi, and Sakurai.

The purpose of this rather lengthy review of the variety of digital options available to the printer is to force printers to evaluate a wider selection of options other than Indigos, Xeikons, NexPresses, DocuColors, etc. Each device listed in the above tables satisfies a particular segment of client demands. As print runs get shorter, time to produce an order almost disappears, and clients expect digital workflows from idea inception throughout the print production process, printers will be required to evaluate all alternatives from extremely short run copying to high speed digital printing. This is no different than what printers did in the past in providing a broad range of production processes from duplicators to 2- and 4-up sheetfed offset printing onto 40" 6-color sheetfed offset presses.

The message is that now is the time to begin this evaluation process, not of on-demand or variable printing, but of adding a digital printing capability to the list of established production services.

Cost Guidelines
One of the first evaluations to be made by a printer regarding the possible use of digital copiers or presses is their cost of procurement and operation versus sales returns/ CAP Ventures has provided an analysis of these costs across the wide variety of digital options available to the printer. The following tables are self-explanatory.

TABLE 5
What Does A Typical Job Look Like?

• What must be done to prepare the job for printing? (Prepress)
• How much ink/toner is applied to the page? (Percent Coverage)
• Will the job be printed in color? (Spot, Process, or Process +)
• How many copies are printed? (Run Length)
• What is the page size? (Format)
• How many pages are there in each document? (Page Count)
• How will the book be bound? (Finishing)
• Will it be printed on both sides of the sheet? (Simplex/Duplex)

TABLE 6
Cost Guidelines—Mid-Range Black and White

• Product cost: $20,000 to $80,000
• Monthly service cost:
• Varies widely depending on system (in some cases under a cent), some systems may be self-serviceable.
• Toner and other consumables: less than a cent at 5% coverage.
• Paper: A cent or less a sheet.
• Overall cost per single-sided page: 1 to 1.5 cents.
• Retail price per single-sided page: 3 to 10 cents.

TABLE 7
Cost Guidelines—Production Black and White

• Production cost: Around $300,000
• Monthly service cost: $6,000 to $8,000/Month
• This works out to a click charge under a cent as long as 1 million + impressions are printed a month.
• Toner and other consumables around 3/10 of a cent at 5% coverage.
• Some service contracts may even include toner.
• Paper: A cent or less per sheet.
• Overall cost per single-sided page: 0.9 to 1.2 cents.
• Retail price per single-sided page: 2.5 to 5 cents.

TABLE 8
Cost Guidelines—Color Copier Printer

• Product cost: Around $25,000.
• Monthly service cost: Around $800/Month
• Click charge: None under 5,000 copies, around 10 – 12 cents per copy above that.
• Toner and other consumables: Around 5 cents at 70% coverage (i.e., 17.5% per color).
• Paper: A cent or two depending on type.
• Overall cost per single-sided page: 15 to 30 cents.
• Retail price per single-sided page: 50 cents to $10 or more depending on variety of factors.

TABLE 9
Cost Guidelines—Production Color

• Product cost: $200,000 to $500,000.
• Some models under $150,000.
• Monthly service cost: Around $2,000 to $4,000/Month
• Toner and other consumables: Around 5 cents at 70% coverage.
• Paper: Two cents or more depending on type.
• Overall cost per single-sided page: 12 to 20 cents.
• Retail price per single-sided page: 50 cents to several dollars depending on a variety of factors.

TABLE 10
Cost Guidelines—Direct To Press

• Product cost: $400,000 to $600,000+
• 4-up and 8-up models are more expensive.
• Monthly service cost: $5,000/Year or around $420/Month.
• This is usually calculated by the owner as an annual percentage of the total device cost (i.e., 1 to 2% of $500,000) and is paid on an as-needed basis.
• Ink and other consumables: ink is 1 to 2 cents at 70% coverage. Four plates total about $38.
• Paper: Two cents or more depending on type.
• Overall cost per single-sided page: 5 to 25 cents*.
• Retail price per single-sided page: 15 cents to a dollar*.

* Depending primarily on run length.

Costs have come down drastically since the initial development of digital color printers. IBM has predicted that within 3 to 8 years, the price of color will reach the cost of black and white. Today, a color page is 5 to 6 times more expensive to produce than B&W, which costs approximately $0.04 to $0.05 per page. A full-color digital page costs between $0.25 and $0.30 to produce, but is expected to fall to $0.10 within five years.

Digital Printing’s Impact by Product Category
Book Production is one of the main areas where digital printing is expected to come to the fore with wide spread adoption by the year 2010, with digital sheetfed machines being used for runs of 1 to 1,500 and web fed machines for runs of 50 to 2,500. With up to 30% of all books are never sold and eventually have to be pulped, there is severe waste that is financially and environmentally damaging.

Book publishers will accelerate their use of virtual warehouse where digital techniques are used in a centralized fashion but production takes place on-demand. Consequently, a warehouse is not required. A second application is the production of books that are out of print. Traditionally, publishers have had to wait until advance orders have been accumulated before they consider reprinting due to the economics involved with the conventional production process, which includes mail order catalogs, store catalogs, directories, brochures, direct mail, and contract magazines.

Commercial Printing: Impacted by the color and graphics of the Internet, commercial print is expected to grow until the second half of the decade, with a major growth towards use of more color and special effects. The promotional print market probably has the greatest potential for digital printing, due to its unique ability to personalize and customize.

Experts predict that promotional print produced by digital printing will be about 15% of the total market by the year 2010. Unfortunately for printers it also pinpoints that a significant % of brochures and other small promotional materials will be produced on desktop devices and printed as needed in the office.

Newspapers, as with books, have a high return rate and therefore are a print application for digital reproduction. For instance, it is technology feasible for newspaper to be delivered electronically and printed out at the desktop of the reader. Overall the total percentage of newspapers printed digitally by 2000 will be less than 2.5%.

Magazines, like books, have a high level of waste in the supply chain. Since 40% of magazines produced are unsold. Together with the waste generated during production, this means that 50% of the paper manufactured for use in magazines is wasted. Interestingly, digital printing is not expected to form part of the solution to the magazine publishers’ situation. Our forecasts is digital printing, including desktop will amount to approximately 9% of magazines printed by 2010.

Digital printing most likely impact will be on transactional print includes business forms, carbonless forms, business stationery, checks, and other financial documents, educational workbooks and greeting cards, etc. Unfortunately, this sector is expected to experience a substantial decline as the impact of e-mail and other forms of electronic transactions/ communication takes effect. The only bright spot in this category is digital printing. It is a current important resource for large corporations, utility companies, etc. to use their monthly statements and invoices by taking advantage of the fact they can provide regular contact with customers and on actionable document that almost always gets read. With digital printing, they can also incorporate a marketing message based on what is already known about the customer. Digital printing also enables extra security features to be added to documents such as tickets, debit cards, and passports.

Packaging is expected to become a significant part of the digital scene. The main trend is for manufacturers to use images on packaging as a marketing opportunity. These messages are being used to strengthen brands, build and maintain corporate identity, and most important, enable manufacturers to differentiate their product through the visual experience of the packaging.

As a result of the trends, there is a rising demand for versioning and variable information printing capabilities as well as for shorter runs, all of which can be achieved with digital printing.

The packaging sector is expected to take to digital print technology quite rapidly, especially beyond 2005. Currently its main use is in the label market, although it is starting to be used for local regional test marketing and products as well as for small folding cartons.

For those readers who doubt the accelerating use of digital printing it must be remembered that when upstart technologies threaten to eclipse older technologies, its enthusiasts prematurely predict victory. When it fails to initially dislodge the established order, conservatives take this as evidence that the original approach will live forever.

It is evident that paper is a powerful medium that will be with us for generations to come. It will adapt to new medias such as the Web. At the same time, according to the Printing Industries of America, the real growth of print is only projected to be just over 2% for the next six years. This means that printers wishing to survive and grow in the future must not bet the future of the business on paper media alone.

According to a recent Business Week article, R.R. Donnelley now derives nearly 25% of its business for non-print products. R.R. Donnelley’s CEO William Davis wants to see that share top 50% in five years. The average printer, therefore, in five years must be well on the road to offering integrated business services.

Some Conclusions
Printers must continue to realize that the world of the average printer is changing, on an accelerated basis. The traditional printer simply won’t find the profits needed to invest in the traditional hardware or in an expanded set of client services to handle the diverse, timely needs of tomorrow’s print buyer.

Important conclusions about on-demand digital print include:

1. Variable printing technologies, equipment and software is capable today of satisfying most market demands. Unfortunately, there is little or no market demand, and probably will not be for the next few years. The average commercial printer should make planning for variable printing a low priority.
   
   
2. The philosophy of on-demand, anything, anytime, anywhere, anyway, is just fine, but is not expected yet by a majority of print buyers.
   
   
3. For traditional printers to provide on-demand, they would have to reorganize in order to work under a different business model. Average printer workflow systems (sometimes archaic) are just not set up for immediate order entry, data transfer, data correction, printing, finishing, etc. This will require a whole new business model for printers wishing to be successful and profitable in on-demand satisfaction.
   
   
4. Digital printing has to be the concern of the average printer, and most will be required to have a digital print operation in the next few years. Print buyers are accepting it, like to work in an electronic workflow, including everything from quotes to proofs to printing, and an ever-increasing number of competitors to traditional printers are providing these services.
   
   
5. Want proof? Visit the Web sites of Kinko’s, Sir Speedy, Ikon, Zyan---and you will see print providers who have established the digital workflow and knowledge to be able to provide clients with not just quick printing, but with robust digital color printing. These are the new competitors to the traditional printer.
   
   
6. Digital printing is no longer Indigos, Xeikons, Heidelberg DIs, etc. Indigos and Xeikons are for niched markets, with a desire to grow into more robust markets. The DI (Direct Imaging) type of presses is more directed at the shorter to medium runs for the traditional printer and has gained some real fans. The new breed of digital presses is toner based, from traditional copy equipment providers such as Xerox, Canon, Ricoh, Minolta, etc. Until the year 2000, toner printing wasn’t well respected. Today it is and it provides the quick turnaround outputs and shortest run production capabilities, not always available from DI presses.
   
   
7. The question is no longer computer-to-press, computer-to-plate, or toner press --- it’s really a combination of all.
   
   
8. Traditional printers entering this arena must build a brand new type of workflow management system. It must be extremely automated. The e-commerce solutions that have basically been rejected by most traditional printers will have to be revisited to determine which can provide a realistic solution at a realistic price.
   
   
9. Besides print process expansion, the traditional printer will certainly have to add service expansion. As already stated, making money on traditional printing will be extremely difficult.
   
   
10. As niched printers (Ikon as an example) expand their facilities management efforts, first handling black & white document production, they will move on to providing the color printing required by their established corporate. This will reduce the amount of printing available to the traditional commercial printer.
    
    
11. As e-commerce software is further directed to and developed for the buyer, most corporates will downsize the number of printers they use. And because the corporates seek a totally digital workflow, they will prefer traditional printers with a digital print operation.
    
    
12. Digital print sales not only require advanced workflows, but a different type of selling effort. Traditional methods of marketing and selling to this new breed of print buyer will require significant change. The concept will not be to sell printing, but to help a client manage their knowledge communications.

Terry A. Nagi is a noted industry consultant. He is a frequent speaker at many industry events. You can reach Mr. Nagi at tanagi@aol.com

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